There is a sense of emergence in the air, of something making itself known. As we gain more confidence here in the UK and see the end of the pandemic, it feels like the end of a phoney war. We have focused our attention and resources on dealing with one set of issues whilst another, more extensive set of problems, from climate change to dysfunctional capitalism, have been gathering pace.
It feels a little like when we realise our circumstances have changed, like going from primary school to secondary school, or moving to a new country when we have to come to terms with new surroundings, different cultures and a new language.
Barclays Bank tells us that we are on the cusp of a spending boom as big as that after the second world war as the money not spent during lockdown fuels a post-pandemic binge.
It is a time of questions and observation, a time of prehension, taking hold, seizing, or grasping as we feel our way into the unfamiliar.
It will take time for the sheer momentum of the “solution” sellers to abate. The frantic, excited assertions that their system, or process, or programme will make us all wildly successful regardless of our circumstances.
What happens next is something we cannot delegate or outsource. It is very individual, and what works for one will not work for another. It is a time to stand back and observe, talk with those we trust about what we see and what we want, and critically, what we leave behind.
The pandemic has been a wake-up call, but what is happening is much more significant. There are real opportunities to learn from this last year, recast our lives, and leave behind the things we now know we do not need.
It is time for a period of quiet reflection, calm observation and orientation, before moving forward in what may be a very different direction.
Yuval Harari has a view that in only a few decades the work we do will be determined by algorithms. That sounds plausible for most of it, after all as we obsess with reducing work to measurable process we do the work necessary to clear the way for that. Right now, for many people the work they do makes them a meat based algorithm. Process, measurement and data make it so.
There is work where we should welcome algorithms. For areas from traffic control to sales, many areas of sccountancy and law and anywhere that relies on interpretation of the complicated, algorithms seem likely to do a great job. Fast, efficient, reliable, with no holidays or stress problems.
For others however, algortithms won’t even come close. When it comes to being human, and our relationship with others, from each other, to the natural world, to the divine, algorithms aren’t in the game. They may do complicated, even really really complicated, but when we get to the complex stuff of being human, then it’s no.
Which raises the question – how do we think about our relationship with the work we do? If Harari is right, it will affect those of us now in our thirties and for those of us, like me, for whom that is a fond memory, it will affect our children and grandchildren. This is our business.
“We are all the seventh generation. We are shaped by the three generations before us, and shaping the world for the three generations who will follow us”
Iroquios Federation
I think algorithms are a gift. If they feel like a threat to the work we do, then I suggest there is better work we could be doing that exercises not just our intellect, but our humanity. We have time, but not long to make the change to more human work.
Over the last couple of decades, we have developed phenomenal, life altering technologies and have also become besotted with them. We are using them I think in some areas just because we can, with a short term view to profit rather than thought or reflection on the implications.
We have got humanity and technology out balance, and that balance will restore – whether we like it or not. That doesn’t mean not using technology, but rather vacating the spaces where it works better than humans do. and occupying the areas that will improve the human condition, and which only humans can do. This will be difficult for many, requiring skills we have forgotten. A rebalancing of the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths) beloved of the Government education establishment and towards the four “C”s Andrew Hill in the FT cited – Compassion, Clarity, Connection and Collaboration. Human qualities we sense as much as technical qualities we can measure. From math to polymath
The work of artisans is part of the infinite game. A game played to human rules. The work of art, of caring for each other and the planet and of discovery has been going in since the beginning of humanity, and will go on till we are no more – hopefully, and with care, later rather than sooner.
Algorithms, at least for now, play finite games. They are designed to win within the finite boundaries of financial performance scorecards and short time frames. They will inexorably take the jobs of those humans who for the last couple of hundred years made livings doing the same. Algorithms are just better at it.
In our search for perpetual growth through an obsession with efficiency and performance, we have submerged the power of our essential humanity. It’s time to surface it again.
We cannot move from technical mindsets to artistic mindsets overnight, and we do not want to overdo it – it requires balance, not dominance. It will be gradual but accelerating path and is, with effort easily within our grasp. The key lies on collaboration.
From my conversations with leaders, and my observations on what’s been happening around us, it seems that we have two very different challenges right now, and one overarching priority.
Uncertainty
These are “doing” challenges.
We have the same sort of challenges we’re used to, but no easy, “proven” answers. We understand the problem, can describe it, and know what’s needs to happen to meet it, but not how to go about it
We are going to have to come to terms with different categories of risk. We are going to have to come to terms with our own fear, and that of others. We are going to have to own the challenge, take decisions, and hold ourselves accountable.
Uncomfortable, but doable. We call it leadership.
Confusion
These are “being” challenges
There are those at the moment who look like a clip from a horror film. They went to sleep one night, comfortable in their surroundings and confident in their position in the world. They understood the rules of the game, had played it well, supported by others like them. They were respectable and felt entitled.
Then, they woke up to find themselves somewhere totally unfamiliar. Their friends have gone. They don’t understand the game, and there do not appear to be any rules.
They find themselves wandering aimlessly, bumping into things, blaming others and issuing commands to others to sort challenges they cannot define. “Just make it go away”
They have a “being” problem. They are not grounded, and have nowhere to stand.
Clarity
As we go about our business today we need clarity. If we don’t have it, we need to either find it, or follow somebody we trust who has until we find our own.
There is little more dangerous than a confused person in a leadership role.
Right now, we have tens of thousands of displaced employees and young people needing to decide what steps they take.
The sight of those they were looking to for leadership uttering words of clearly false bravado whilst exhibiting what can only be described as incoherent incompetence is more than unsettling.
We can accept uncertainty providing we have competent leaders. Confused leaders just need to step down gracefully. This is not their time.
We are all leaders
We are all leaders in our own world, the only variable is the number of people who follow us.
We can all embrace uncertainty if we talk to each other, rather than at each other.
Richard Merrick - Reflections 