When I lived in Switzerland, there was a joke. 

The logs at the top of the pile needs the ones at the bottom to be really, really, stable.


As we get past the initial disorientation of what’s going on, past the stockpiling (interesting that the British do toilet rolls, whilst the Americans seem to do guns) and the bravado, past the hysteria of the tabloid press and into something of a pattern, the unexpected consequences begin to become clear.

  • Who is important to the functioning of our society. The Key workers.  The natural Givers.
  • “Our people are our most important asset” gets seriously tested.
  • The amount of froth in our economic coffee. The staggering amount of largely pointless activity that consumes attention but leaves no lasting trace, from coffee shops to celebrities.
  • The fragility of international supply chains, and the comfort of buying from people who we know.
  • The immediate effect on our CO2 emissions. We’ve talked about in worthily for ages, then this comes along and we get real action. James Lovelock’s Gaia theories stock just went up a notch.
  • The boundaries of AI becomes clear. The data on which most practical applications rely is historic. It didn’t see this coming, and I suspect if we asked it what to do, we wouldn’t like the answer much.
  • The exposure of the takers in the economy. The sheer amount of wealth they have gathered will shield them, but their credibility is severely dented, and their future authority in question. Logs on the ground look much like each other.

It’s easy to say that in retrospect that this was coming was obvious. Like all Black Swans, it may be true, but we didn’t act as though we did, and that’s what matters.

Equally, it’s instructive to notice the number of pundits who say they saw it coming. It may be true, but if they couldn’t make their voice heard, it’s of no moment today.

We will continue to work at understanding what is going on whilst the Givers do their utmost to mitigate the effects on us and the takers pick from the debris, but we have no idea of what next year will look like. 

So, what do we do?

I’m writing my thoughts on this at in the full knowledge that none of us know what to do until we get to a point where things begin to settle (if they do) and right now, I think it comes down to one main action:

Generous self reliance. 

Our institutions, public and private, are struggling to keep up with the pace of change. It doesn’t make them bad, just arthritic. 

Those making a difference are individuals, from the doctors following their calling despite self evident risk, to the companies moving  production to ventilators for no profit, to the local groups organising supplies to the vulnerable, to those continuing to empty bins and stack shelves for around the living wage. 

Whether we’re comfortable with it or not, for the next little while, we are reliant on them and their goodwill. We should be truly grateful. 

I suspect that in the vast majority of cases, the people leading these efforts have made their own decision. They are clear minded about what is important to them, and acted in line with that. 

They are reliant on themselves first, and use that to give. 


It is those I want to associate with as we go forward.

Value and Values

Value is one of those terms that we slip so routinely into our narratives that it’s easy for it to become invisible. And yet, it’s fundamental in every aspect of our lives. What we value goes a long way to determining who we are.

Before the current global difficulty, notions of value had been taken over largely by business. Shareholder value. Added Value. Retained value. Hard measures of extrinsic worth. Financial wealth.

Now, the real, deeper meaning of value is rising to the surface, buoyed up by what feels like an existential issue. Who we value more than what we value.

The notion of “key worker” is giving a refreshing perspective on value. Doctors, Nurses, Teachers, Bin Collectors, Shop Assistants. Not much sign of hedge fund managers, HR managers, Advertising Managers.

Whilst every single one of us is uniquely valuable, at times like this it is the ones who put themselves out, and at risk, to look after others that stand out.

It’s also true I suspect that if we look at how we reward key workers, we take advantage of their commitment. A case where value and values sit at odds with each other.

Extensive research has shown that the easiest way to demotivate someone who has a vocation for what they do is to tie them in to performance based appraisal and reward systems.

We have done this to teachers, doctors, nurses, and many others who do what they do because it meaningful to them, and routinely risk themselves in service of that.

We are paying givers poorly in a system that reward takers. If that doesn’t shame us right now, it should.

What we will go through for the next few months gives us an opportunity to reflect on this, and address it.

Clever investment managers will find a way to profit from this crisis, but it’s probably not best to call them when you get the virus.

We can do better than this.

Value and Values are different.

Cheap has a price

As a family, we used to play the board game risk. When things weren’t going to plan, one of the children would just fold the board up and throw all the pieces in the air. 

It feels a bit like that now.

“How did you go bankrupt? Gradually, then suddenly”

The sun also rises. Ernest Hemingway.


Technology has enabled, over the last fifty years, our ability to disaggregate the elements that made the industrial revolution so commercially effective and reassemble them in an economically efficient way. 

First we outsourced production to low cost economies, then on the back of that, basic services then more advanced services, and finally much of our innovation efforts. 

We were able to reduce costs far more than prices, and create a small group of phenomenal winners, a large group of marginal winners in the developing economies that dramatically reduced poverty, and another large group of losers in the developed economies who saw incomes and living standards stagnate.

We are now looking to continue that progression using machine learning and artificial intelligence.

We have ended up, in aggregate as a world population slightly better off, but with huge perceived disparities and a sense of unfairness and along the way created a very small group who are unimaginably better off.


It is the wont of politicians at present to use metaphors or war when talking about how we deal with a virus that has no politics. It’s good to have someone to blame.

The reality is that much of the economic impact we will experience is a result of the blindness of those pursuing growth at the expense of  prosperity. 

Staying with ideas of war, no competent military leader would dream of extending supply chains in the way that we have with our manufacturing, service and creative assets. We have managed to extend both our material supply chains and our relationship chains at the same time, leaving us heavily exposed to multiple disruptions. 

We got really excited at the Brexit threat to lean production (remember that?) and now find ourselves self isolating in every respect.

I’m noticing lots of small things that add up to a big thing. I tried shopping online with a couple of supermarkets – the welcome screens were full of the benefits and ladels of wonderfulness I would receive, until I got to the ordering bit, which in a cursory manner said effectively “go away”. The same is true of many of other “highly efficient” systems, from banks to protective clothing to pharmacies. 

On the other hand, I live in a village and our local shops just roll with the punches. More expensive, yes but strong on relationships, flexibility and humour in adversity. 

I know the situation is exceptional, but that’s the point. That’s where risk lies. Viruses are not “black swans” – they have long been identified as major potential disruptors, only the timing and initial location was unknown.

We have knowingly created the conditions for the situation we find ourselves in, little by little, blinded by efficiency and growth.

And here we are.


We will, of course, get through this, although the degree to which we will be battered in unknown. Lives will be lost. Jobs will be lost. We will end up a long way from where we started.

If there is one lesson we might learn before, like Monty Python’s Black Knight, we climb back on our growth obsessed, AI and ML empowered, mechanical charger, it is that AI doesn’t do this type of challenge.

It may be brilliant at puzzles, where our uncertainties lie in not knowing where the missing pieces are, but Covid-19 is a mystery, the morphs and mutates as we deal with it. 

It is a mystery, not a problem, and we should be mindful of it’s brother – climate change, which promises many of the same issues. 

And humans are brilliant at mysteries. We have been contemplating them since we emerged from the primordial soup.

Our pursuit of mysteries is at the core of who we are. 

Cheap has a price

This is a wake up call. It is going to be be messy and unpleasant, but we will survive it. 

If we want it to have a benefit, then let it be that in the end economies serve people, not the other way round. We can design them, and make choices.

We can create huge opportunities for humans to do what they do best. Imagine, dream, create, love. 

The rest, we can leave to machines. 

I’ll finish with one of my favourite stories from Nietzsche

There was once a wise spiritual master, who was the ruler of a small but prosperous domain, and who was known for his selfless devotion to his people.

As his people flourished and grew in number, the bounds of this small domain spread; and with it the need to trust implicitly the emissaries he sent to ensure the safety of its ever more distant parts.

It was not just that it was impossible for him personally to order all that needed to be dealt with: as he wisely saw, he needed to keep his distance from, and remain ignorant of, such concerns.

And so he nurtured and trained carefully his emissaries, in order that they could be trusted. Eventually, however, his cleverest and most ambitious vizier, the one he most trusted to do his work, began to see himself as the master, and used his position to advance his own wealth and influence. He saw his master’s temperance and forbearance as weakness, not wisdom, and on his missions on the master’s behalf, adopted his mantle as his own – the emissary became contemptuous of his master.

And so it came about that the master was usurped, the people were duped, the domain became a tyranny; and eventually it collapsed in ruins.

Stay safe all.