Seasons and Cycles

Whether nature or business, we are governed by the need to adapt to cycles. We welcome each one, knowing there are things we need to do to profit from the next cycle.

Much as we might like it to be different, there is no perpetual summer, and we can’t go from spring to spring without doing the work in autumn and winter.

So why, I wonder do we think business is different? That with a bit of twiddling, we can live perpetually in summer?

The collapse of Thomas Cook is as iconic as it was inevitable. It’s easy to see in retrospect that it needed to recognise that it was autumn ten years ago, and that it was in winter five years ago, but the investors wanted to wear their shorts by the pool, and the managers, instead of telling truth to power, did their best to provide, probably knowing it was futile, but hey, it wasn’t their business……..

Itinerant gardeers can move elsewhere, but the land isn’t going anywhere, and nor are those who value it.

Right now, both meteorologically and economically, winter is coming. We cannot continue to sit by the pool as the climate changes, inequality increases and societies fracture under the pressure.

Perpetual growth on a planet with finite resources is an oxymoron, and their is nothing wrong (in fact everything good) to be done if we stop taxing the system in pursuit of the unneccessary for a while.

It’s a time to prune, dividends as well as trees. To sit together round a warm fire and plan for spring. We cannot make it happen faster, but we can be ready when it comes.

Winter is a season, not failure, and not a problem

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